Parag Khanna: «In Every Book, I Aim to Debunk a Myth»
In an exclusive interview with finews.asia, strategist-turned-entrepreneur Parag Khanna unveils how his new firm, AlphaGeo, delivers the first-ever global dataset on resilience, shares his unfiltered views on Donald Trump, and explains why even Elon Musk can't say certain things.
Parag Khanna, the second term of US President Donald Trump has begun with much fanfare. Is there more to it?
There's talk and there's action. As a political scientist, I focus less on personalities and individuals – and tweets. I try to cancel out the noise. I'm interested in what will actually happen.
For example?
Will he deport a certain number of people or not? What will be the implications of his AI approach for companies such as OpenAI that are competing with Deep Seek as legislation is floated to potentially ban the import of Chinese AI tech?
«We should not hold America to the standards of a conventional nation-state democracy»
I'm interested in trade policy and foreign policy. To what extent is his desire serious to incorporate Panama and Greenland? I look at it from various perspectives, not from the person himself.
Doesn’t Trump's narrative make you uneasy?
We should not hold America to the standards of a conventional nation-state democracy, according to, let’s say, the theoretical letter of the law.
Why not?
America is an empire like China or Europe. Each of these has a distinctive style of diplomacy and grand strategy. So don't judge America's conduct according to a fixed standard of how a democracy should function or what your historical recollection is.
Can you explain that in more detail?
Superpowers operate more on the principle of a grand strategy than on democratic diplomacy. They don't care for multilateralism unless it serves their purposes. Therefore, I always judge by conduct, not by words.
Speaking of conduct. Donald Trump has rather little comprehension of climate change, whereas you recently noted: «The nations whose leaders are doing the least to combat climate change will be worst affected by climate volatility». Doesn’t the situation in the US worry you?
Indeed, as Donald Trump is back in the White House and slashes environmental regulations, more Americans will be victims of intense natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and fires – and it will only get worse, putting the housing market at risk and worsening homelessness as well.
What are the consequences?
Climate migration is reshaping the residential landscape of the US, as floods, fires, and other environmental threats intensify, the search for safer and more prosperous places to live will become an ever more pressing challenge.
Climate migration is not a simple cause-and-effect process but results from a dynamic interplay of environmental and economic factors.
Can you elaborate on that?
Lower-income groups prioritize safety and affordability, while higher-income groups often move to wealthier, high-risk areas seeking economic gain despite long-term environmental concerns. Locally, people relocate within counties to safer zones but stay close to economic hubs.
«AlphaGeo provides the first global dataset of resilience»
Wealthy, flood-prone metro areas continue to grow due to infrastructure investments and resilience. Identifying locations that balance affordability, opportunity, and resilience is the key to a national strategy that balances climate and economic factors.
Migration and mobility are the topics of your bestselling book «Move.» You argue that people relocate not only for political or economic reasons but also due to climate factors. How did this insight lead you to start a company?
Indeed, if I had not been writing about climate migration in «Move,» I would not have created AlphaGeo. Or, let’s say I would not have had the confidence to launch AlphaGeo.
Why?
I realized that with my research for «Move,» I was making predictions about the winning and losing geographies based on climate and migration. I asked myself: Why aren’t people investing today in the winners of tomorrow? Why is there not more capital flowing into these places, given that they are the inevitable winners? That’s why I decided to monetize this idea.
What added value does your startup offer?
AlphaGeo provides the first global dataset of resilience. In other words, we have quantified and measured what resilience means – for every place in the world. This helps investors invest in more resilient locations. That is our genuine breakthrough.
AlphaGeo helps investors prepare for climate volatility by guiding their investments into the most resilient geographies. Our proprietary toolkit scores both the risk and adaptation capacity of every location on Earth, giving you the «ground truth» to invest and insure with confidence.
Can you give an example of your work so far?
Using our in-house methodology, we recalculated the GDP for each state considering population density, sectoral composition, climate exposure, and our proprietary scoring of each location's infrastructural resilience. With this, we found that India’s GDP will be $500 billion less than the Ministry of Finance’s projection of $8.26 trillion in 2030 – a significant climate discount.
What’s your next book about?
There is a stream of consciousness, and my books interrelate. One gives rise to the next. The first three books were about geopolitics and world order, tackling different aspects of it. But in every book, I aim to debunk a myth.
«My next book, nearly finished, is titled Why Globalism Wins»
For example, «Move» was about human geography, and I wanted to challenge the myth that mobility had ceased due to COVID-19 and Trump’s first term. In reality, mobility has always been ongoing, and this will continue.
My next book, nearly finished, is titled «Why Globalism Wins.» In fact, all of my books revolve around globalization and always challenge prevailing assumptions. What statement could be more antithetical to today’s conventional wisdom than «Why Globalism Wins»? Trump entered office attacking globalization, right?
Are you still writing your books yourself?
Yes, I do. Many people no longer write themselves, using Large Language Models (LLMs) or ghostwriters. In my books, every single word results from my own «blood, sweat, and tears.»
Don’t you have a team to provide some data?
I sometimes have researchers pulling data for me or summarizing information. But that becomes nothing more than a footnote. Of course, AI is fascinating. But at the same time, it's frustrating because it takes away authenticity. I don’t use LLMs at all, quite frankly. But, admittedly, I have less and less time.
Why?
AlphaGeo is now my main occupation. It’s a venture-backed startup with major institutional investors and high expectations. While we are monetizing our model, it’s not enough yet, and I have a fully-fledged company to oversee. I manage a team, a CTO, a strategy officer, investor relations, and daily operations. At the end of the day, there isn’t much time left for freelance intellectual pursuits.
Where is AlphaGeo based?
It was founded here in Singapore, but we operate remotely. The C-suite is divided between here and New York, with one person in Dubai. We are in the process of hiring more people.
You moved to Singapore a few years ago. Do you still enjoy life there?
Oh yeah, I love it. I call it a tropical urban paradise. And in a way, it's the best world you can imagine. It's so super connected. Well-organized, reliable, clean, a financial center, a super safe place – it ticks all the boxes.
«Elon Musk can’t say that because he is against immigration»
The best way to scare people about New York is to send them to New York. So, on the opposite, the best way to convince people of Singapore is to just come here.
Elon Musk recently said Singapore (and many other countries) is going extinct because of the low birth rate.
Well, the difference is how you see things. There is something he's not allowed to say based on his restricted ideology.
What?
Singapore will be fine because of immigration. Elon Musk can’t say that because he is against immigration. So, he doesn't understand that Singapore can grow very easily. The government can always adjust how many people they want to let in; taking into account that so many people want to come to Singapore.
I'm not worried at all about Singapore's demographics. I'm not worried about its climate. I'm not worried about its economy. I'm not worried about its government. None of it. I mean, it is a unique city.
Doesn’t the political autocracy in Singapore trouble you?
No, it’s a great virtue. In my book «Technocracy in America», I compared Switzerland and Singapore. I argued that these two countries have opposite systems, yet both offer the best governance models in the world.
The two systems are completely opposite.
On paper… Let’s take a closer look. In Switzerland, you have direct democracy, but you also have state institutions that ensure functionality. Things in Switzerland work not because of democracy, but because of reliable and competent professional civil servants.
«Singapore is much more democratic»
In Singapore, on the other hand, you don’t have direct democracy; you have technocracy, but the government constantly consults the people. This means that the government knows what the people are thinking and expecting, and acts in their best interest.
What do you conclude from this?
Switzerland is much more technocratic than people assume, and Singapore is much more democratic. Ultimately, these two systems possess complementary virtues. I wouldn’t take direct democracy away from Switzerland, just as I wouldn’t take technocracy away from Singapore. The hybrid model is what I ultimately call «direct technocracy».
AlphaGeo is launching a new service. What is it?
It’s called the Periodic Table of States (PTOS). What we’ve done is reorganize the countries of the world in a structure similar to the periodic table in chemistry. Each country is assigned a score.
«It’s not just a traditional power ranking»
In chemistry, every element has an atomic mass – so we assigned scores to countries based on their strength and their stateness. Stateness refers to the cohesion of a state – its effectiveness and capacity to function as a strong and stable entity.
How does that make sense?
Each state receives a score for its stability and governance – measuring how stable, durable, and reliable a country is. Switzerland ranks number one. The US is number six. Singapore is in the top 10.
What’s particularly interesting about our results is that they provide the first index that isn’t biased solely toward size but also considers quality. In other words, it’s not just a traditional power ranking.
We asked ourselves: How can we combine all these different factors into a single meta-index where state capability matters as much as raw power?
How did you solve this problem?
We created an equally weighted basket of variables that account for strength, military size, and population, but also for governance quality and other characteristics such as democracy or technocracy.
In the end, we successfully developed a new, uncorrelated product. If you visit our website, you’ll find it under PTOS. We hope it will help influence sovereign ratings, and we want to see investors use it for their asset allocation decisions.
Parag Khanna is the Founder & CEO of AlphaGeo, the leading AI-powered geospatial analytics platform. He is an internationally bestselling author of seven books including Move: Where People Are Going for a Better Future (2021), preceded by The Future is Asian: Commerce, Conflict & Culture in the 21st Century (2019), as well as a trilogy of books on the future of world order. He holds a Ph.D. from the London School of Economics, and Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Born in India and raised in the UAE, New York, and Germany, he is now based in Singapore.
