Gold is back: after five years in the doldrums, investors are snapping the precious metal up in large quantities. Here are the reasons for the revival.

It was big news today: central banks have added more gold to their reserves than at any time since the 1970s. Russia is the most active among the buyers, according to figures provided by the World Gold Council (WGC).

In 2018, central banks around the world added 651 tons of gold to their holdings, the biggest net increase since 1971, when the free convertibility of the U.S. dollar into gold was suspended by the Nixon administration. And data shows that last year’s net increase is the second-highest ever.

Huge Supply Holds Price Back

The demand for gold by central banks increased 74 percent from a year earlier. With the price of gold at about $1,310 per ounce, the volume of the metal purchased by central banks corresponds to about $27 billion.

Even as demand for gold soared, the price didn’t increase at the same pace. The reason is the level of supply. Mines around the world produced 3,347 tons of gold last year, a new record. The recycled volume also reached a record 1,173 tons.

The Perfect Storm

Still, experts say that the price of gold may soon rise substantially as several factors combine to form the perfect storm. First, they say gold is becoming more attractive as the equity bull market is coming to an end, forcing investors to shop around for other assets.

Second, with volatility increasing, investors are looking for stability, which may also benefit the gold price. And third, the dollar is expected to get weaker this year – also benefiting the gold price. The U.S. dollar and gold tend to move in opposite directions.

The Trump Effect

The fourth aspect is a lack of trust in the U.S. under the guidance of President Donald Trump, which in turn may help depress the dollar further – thus pushing up the price of gold.

Fifth: a currency crisis and level of indebtedness in many countries will whet the appetite of investors for gold, given its functions as a long-term safe haven. With a potential slump of cryptocurrencies also potentially imminent, some investors may be looking for other, more traditional, vehicles.

Sixth: the world is undergoing substantial change, with many industries facing challenges from resurgent technological competitors, with the «old» West grappling with the «new», dynamic East and a society that is getting older, putting pressure on pension systems designed for a different era. The sense of unease tends to favor investments in gold, analysts say.

The Role of Russia and the U.S.

Seventh: a stock exchange crisis may precipitate an even stronger decline of indexed products. A rapid decline in index products may lead to an ever faster and deeper crash, studies have shown.

It may be a little ironic that it is Russia that is leading a trend, having been crisis-ridden for so many years. The U.S. meanwhile is moving into a more isolated position and the dollar, which still is so important for the pricing of gold, is losing some of its importance.