The latest Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator was unchanged at 111.1 in May, slightly below the average of the past 12 months of 112.4.
While sentiment remains at a low level, the recent stabilisation in the survey provides a tentative signal that the recent efforts to underpin economic growth are having some impact.
While consumers’ assessment of the current level of their personal finances worsened further in May and remains at a weak level, there were signs of an improvement in buying conditions. Durable Buying Conditions picked up on the month as our survey participants turned more optimistic about making a large household outlay. This was supported by improved readings on the detailed buying indicators for IT products, phones and household appliances and more positive results for spending on shopping and entertainment.
The sharp rise in share prices this year brought renewed confidence in the stock market with consumers reporting a slight or good investment return over the past year rising to the highest since June 2012. They were also slightly more optimistic that share prices would continue to rise over the coming three months and a record 7.8% of consumers said that local shares were the wisest place to keep their savings, with bank deposits, bonds and wealth management products giving ground to the stock market.
Westpac’s Senior International Economist Huw McKay said, “There are a number of promising trends emerging in the detail of the survey. Most importantly, risk aversion seems to be receding. Direct investment in the share market and exposure via mutual funds is becoming increasingly popular, while simultaneously, the ‘good time to buy a house’ indicator has moved back above its long run average. It is also encouraging that the most optimistic age cohorts are those that are most active in the twin processes of household formation and durables accumulation.”
