One of Donald Trump's most prominent campaign promises was to «drain the swamp» in Washington – a hit with establishment-weary voters. The president-elect has set himself up to fail.
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Donald Trump first moves when he takes charge of the Oval Office in Washington are his secret. His supporters however expect him to honor his election promises.
One of them made him enormously popular. The slogan that he would «drain the swamp in Washington D.C.» was the second-most referenced, after «make America great again».
Washington's «swamp»: the expression describes the political system in which the federal government and an army of lobbyists, lawyers and advisers have formed a tightly-knit and completely opaque network of interest representation, which often remain non-transparent, be they private or public.
It was Trump's keen sense of sentiments – in particular negative ones – within the general U.S. public which made him the next president.
«Political corruption is a top worry among U.S. citizen»
It is a safe bet that Trump had carefully studied the Gallup poll of 2015 suggesting that political corruption was a top worry among U.S. citizen.
The survey showed that people widely believed that the only profession to act even less ethically than politicians were the lobbyists.
It is worth looking closely at the Washington system if we want to better understand this result. The U.S. government has about 2.7 million civil employees. There are 535 members of Congress, who in turn have thousand of advisers, election campaigners, fund raisers and secretaries to help them.
An entire industry has sprung up around this nucleus – one which depends directly or indirectly on the federal government. The sheer size of this industry is enormous: more than 10,000 registered lobbyists, thousands of lawyers and consultants.
«It is a system of revolving doors»
James Turber, a political analyst, believes that the true number of lobbyists active in the U.S. capital lies close to 100,000. It is an industry that generates about $9 billion annually. The federal government buys more than $400 billion worth of services and products from the private sector.
In his book «The Unwinding», U.S. author George Packer described how the system works, using the career of a lobbyist called Jeff Connaughton as an example for his detailed account.
It is a system of revolving doors, with repeated changes of sides of government employees and consultants, switching their desks in the Capitol with those at the law firms and consultancies, earning vast sums of money defending private interests.
The lobby industry truly exploded in the 1990s. At the time, switching sides still was considered «selling out». Walking through the revolving door later became known as «cashing in», Packer says.
Trump first will have to come to grips with this system. Draining it will be a task in itself, Daniel Wuersch, partner at New York-based law firm Wuersch & Gering says. «The interlocking interests are enormous. Rebuilding this system from scratch goes beyond what a president can do,» Wuersch told finews.first.
The president is bound by the framework provided by the U.S. constitution. He can nominate a mere 4,000 of the 2.7 million state employees. For 1,000 of those he needs the approval of the Senate. Independent bodies and commissions often are staffed by members of the Republicans and the Democrats, Wuersch said, who has 20 years of experience as a lawyers in the U.S. «This limits the influence of the president quite naturally.»
«The result on balance is positive»
He has seen the web tighten over the years, with private and public interests becoming amalgamated. «It surely is problematic from a political and democratic point of view if the influence of financial interests over the government is so strong,» he added.
But the system has its advantages too. «The revolving door between private and public career gives an incentive to people who either aspire to a career in the private sector or already achieved one, to serve the state,» the lawyer said. It also engenders the understanding of the «other» side both within the private sector and in politics. «Therefore I believe the result of the revolving doors on balance is positive.»
The negative appreciation among the general public of the lobby and government interdependence probably was shaped by people such as Jack Abramoff, once one of the most colorful lobbyists in Washington, before being brought down by a series of scandals.
«Once he had taken the offer, we owned him»
Abramoff conceded in court to have assisted prominent deputies with money gifts, golfing trips and other expeditions. He also said in an interview with CNN a couple of years ago that one of the best methods to get what he wanted was to offer jobs to assistants of members of Congress. Once the person had taken up the offer, «we owned him», the lobbyist said.
Resources aren't available in equal measures in the Washington system. Big corporations and the business lobbies employ up to one hundred lobbyists and lawyers. Their approach is far more diligent and strategic than Abramoff's case would suggest.
Packer described how they devised coalitions, established strategic guidelines for demands and campaigns, contacted specific interest groups via dedicated communication channels and prepared topical papers for the media.
The lobbyists ply their trade according to the same principle as venture capitalists: they don't put their eggs all in one basket and spread out their interests, develop various scenarios and follow through with those who show early promise.
Lobbying in Washington has become a competition of resources, whereby big and financially powerful interest groups, companies and industries enjoy a clear advantage. Congress cannot keep up with these capacities.
In his election campaign, Trump made the best out of what this systems means for politics and pulled the blue-collar electorate over to his side. This segment of America no longer feels represented by politicians in Washington – and lobbying probably contributed to this sentiment.
«The U.S. had developed into an oligarchy»
After the analysis of 1,800 decision of the U.S. government, a Cambridge study in 2014 concluded that «economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.»
The U.S. had developed from a democracy into an oligarchy, the study authors said. Trump's promise to drain the swamp was a savvy political move.
After his election as U.S. president, Trump still seems keen to keep his promise. In one of his first announcements, he said he would make the revolving door mechanism between politics and the business world much more difficult.
However, the way he put his team together shows that most members had gone through those doors to represent his policies over the coming four years – one of them is a former banker with Goldman Sachs, another an ex-CEO of Exxon.
And not long ago, Trump distanced himself from the slogan of wanting to drain the swamp: he claimed he never liked it anyway. He must have realized that he would fail trying to keep that election promise.
Peter Hody is deputy editor-in-chief of finews.ch. He has held several managerial positions at «Cash» and «Stocks», Swiss financial news outlets. Earlier, he was a reporter at Associated Press and RTL/ProSieben. Hody studied history and acquired an MBA in Media Management at the Hamburg Media School.
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