The only statistics you can trust are those you falsified yourself, according to a famous saying. This springs to mind in context with the coronacrisis, with a flood of data and figures available for all sorts of things, Santosh Brivio writes in an exclusive essay for finews.first.
This article is published on finews.first, a forum for authors specialized in economic and financial topics.
More and more people are struggling to know what they should believe. The far-reaching consensus about how best to understand the corona-virus has given way to an ever stronger sense of controversy. The longer the pandemic lasts, the more society will get pulled apart by the question about how to best deal with it.
«The opinions even diverge in respect to the current development of the pandemic»
What do you think about corona? This simple enough question has literally become a step into the proverbial minefield and is almost guaranteed to provoke a heated discussion, with a clash of mutually irreconcilable opinions and positions.
And there’s hardly one view that couldn’t be backed up with the help of a pertinent statistic.
The opinions even diverge on the current development of the pandemic. The feared second wave is already underway, say some and refer to a worrying increase in infections over the past weeks. No need to panic, say others and point out that the testing regime has been upped: more tests mean more cases, they claim.
«The number of deaths are an unmistakable sign, the first group claims. Rubbish, the others will counter»
If you agree to disagree on this one aspect, the next point of conflict follows suit. It isn’t even possible to clearly state which country is currently doing well and which doesn’t, a question seemingly easy enough to answer.
Those who base themselves on actual numbers of infections are saying that among industrialized nations, the U.S. are worst hit, followed by Luxembourg, Israel, Spain and Sweden. Not necessarily, say those who rely on the rate of recovery.
Luxembourg, the U.S. and Israel simply have moved further along the trajectory of the pandemic which in the end is unstoppable, they claim. «The number of deaths are an unmistakable sign,» says the first group. «Rubbish,» others will counter. For one thing, the number of deaths is heavily influenced by the way it is being collected and secondly is a momentary snapshot only and the rate of death can, if at all, only be properly assessed at the end of the year.
«It shows that the virus isn’t more dangerous than a heavy flu»
Which moves us right to the heart of the discussion about how dangerous corona really is. While many still have the images from Bergamo and New York weighing on their minds, others are saying that the assumed rate of mortality through Covid-19 has fallen substantially to about 3 percent globally. The high rate of undetected cases with few or no symptoms indicated furthermore that the virus in fact wasn’t much more dangerous than a strong flu and that society had to learn how to live with it.
But taking a few precautions, with social distancing, hand hygiene and the obligation to wear a face mask surely are bearable and indeed appropriate measures for this life with the virus, those who have great respect of the virus will say.
«The economic, societal and social effects of those measures are far too big given the limited threat from corona,» those who are taking Covid-19 with a shrug will say. And in any case: the obligation to wear a mask is complete nonsense which contributes very little if at all apart from appeasing once’ conscience. «The use is well proven,» say the proponents and refer to studies that have shown the risk of infection to drop by 80 percent.
Which doesn’t say anything about the absolute risk of infection, the opponents of masks say. They rely on studies that have shown the risk of infection through contact with a Corona-patient to be 3 percent with a mask and 17 percent without.
«Are we to contain the virus as such and is this at all possible?»
The list of points of disagreement can be easily extended. The discussions about the threat from the virus, the statistics of the pandemic or protective measures are not least due to the fact that the strategy and aim of the fight against corona aren’t that clear anymore and there is widespread confusion.
Are we trying to contain the virus as such and is this at all possible? Why keep the reproduction number R below 1 if most infections are mild or lead to no symptoms at all?
If the goal is to prevent the health system from becoming overburdened – wouldn’t rates of hospitalizations be much more helpful than rates of infection? If the goal is to protect the vulnerable, aren’t falling or already very low rates of death encouraging signs?
«People resort to a deeply human behavior known as anchoring effect»
As such and similar questions in many countries are answered vaguely at best, it is all the more difficult to assess the flood of corona data adequately.
Therefore, people resort to a deeply human behavior known as an anchoring effect. They filter the information, data and headlines in a way that supports their own convictions. Therefore, the saying from above should actually be recast to: the only statistics you can trust are the ones you have selected yourself.
Santosh Brivio is senior economist at Migros Bank and focuses on the economic and financial market development. Before joining Migros Bank in 2020, he spent seven years at Raiffeisen. His last position there was as head of advisory services and responsible for «thematic investment». He took his first job in finance in 2009 as a scientific and personal adviser of a managing partner at Bank Wegelin. Brivio is a chartered alternative investment analyst (CAIA).
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