Switzerland’s largest bank didn’t escape the Archegos wreckage unscathed, finews.asia has learned. UBS' singing is however far from the burn that rival Credit Suisse is nursing.
Zurich-based UBS, the sixth-largest prime broker according to data provider Preqin, also catered to troubled hedge fund Archegos. Yet the Swiss bank was mum as its crosstown rival Credit Suisse warned of a major hit against its first-quarter results.
The damage unleashed at Credit Suisse by the hedge fund now reportedly tallies at as much as $5 billion. How did UBS, which ranks directly behind Credit Suisse in catering to hedge funds, escape a similar fate?
Unwind Continues
The answer is that the Swiss wealth management giant didn’t entirely, according to a person familiar with the matter. UBS, silent this week as Credit Suisse issued its profit warning, is reportedly still unwinding (behind paywall) a series of complicated instruments when it called margin on the hedge fund.
Though estimates vary, the bank believes it will be left nursing losses of not more than low-three-digit millions from business with Archegos, the person said. The damage isn’t such that it will neither torpedo UBS’ quarterly profits nor trigger a warning, the person noted. A spokeswoman for UBS declined to comment.
Bank Scrambling
Analysts expect a quarterly profit of $1.44 billion from UBS when it reports on April 27, according to a consensus compiled by the bank itself. Executives at both banks scrambled late last week to evaluate the Archegos debris, with Swiss regulator Finma intervening early on.
UBS' top investment banker Rob Karoskfy, risk chief Christian Bluhm, and finance overseer Kirt Gardner were among the top executives involves. The Swiss bank apparently feels confident enough it can extricate itself from the wreckage without wiping out the quarterly progress.
Diverging Share Price
This puts UBS squarely in the camp of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which were both able to offload their Archegos holdings quickly. By contrast, Credit Suisse and Japan’s Nomura, which on Monday flagged a $2 billion hit, weren’t as fast.
The episode illustrates that UBS' risk limits held in this case, while raising manifold questions about Credit Suisse's limits. The latter's shares slumped more than 16 percent since the bank disclosed the Archegos hit on Monday; investors sent UBS’ shares just three percent lower over the same period.
