China’s shift on COVID-19 is likely to restart the region’s tourism and business travel sectors. Bankers should be alert to the possibility of zero-COVID payback.

It looks like regional travel is back. At least that seems to be one of the key takeaways from China’s recent steps to downgrade its response measures for COVID-19.

Following that, The National Immigration Administration also fell into line Tuesday, indicating that from 8 January it would accept passport applications for Chinese citizens traveling abroad, including for mainland residents who wanted to visit Hong Kong for business and pleasure.

It also intends to resume issuing visas and residence permits for foreigners.

Unnecessary Travel

Does this all mean that one of Asia’s main pre-pandemic idiosyncrasies – the unnecessary business trip – is back?

It is very possible. At the very least, there is more than likely to be an initial wave of unannounced senior bank executives with impressive titles and debatable regional functions and responsibilities visiting far-flung locations for no other reason other than that they can.

The real question is whether the endless rounds of meetings where staff members sit around retelling their names and what they do to someone they have never seen or heard of will last.

No Jets

It might not. The world has changed. In Asia, fewer jets fly relatively sparse schedules and remote working has become an established thing.

But in this first blush of post-pandemic travel, there is also another thing bankers should be wary of amid the confusing rustle of identical Rimowa and Samsonite wheeled carry-ons being slammed into overhead stowage bins.

Certain governments may have other plans.

Japan Testing

As Nikkei Asia reported on Tuesday, the Japanese Prime Minister indicated that the country will tighten restrictions for travelers from China, requiring them all to be tested on arrival and then placing them in quarantine for seven days if they test positive.

The step is a particularly interesting one given many Chinese citizens, with their newfound freedom, are likely to be stampeding in the direction of Hokkaido for a ski vacation.

And spending seven days of that in quarantine instead of an outrageously expensive hotel is probably not how they expect matters to turn out.

Rapid Increase

Although the Japanese government claims it is a result of the large increase in COVID-19 cases in China, there is also a small outside chance it could be something else entirely.

The rapidity of Japan’s response at least indicates the potential for some small form of payback of the harsh and prolonged zero-COVID restrictions many countries have had to endure from China throughout the pandemic.

After all, it was less than two years ago that Japan formally lodged a protest with China asking the mainland to stop taking anal swab tests on its citizens when entering the country.

Getting Caught

When booking flights, bankers should beware of that kind of back and forth and make sure they don’t get caught in the middle. Unless they are in Hong Kong, as they are likely to have different things to worry about.

From the middle of January onwards, mainland shoppers will potentially be on the prowl. Given that, it might be an idea to avoid the malls on the Kowloon side and Tsim Tsa Tsui - at least until everyone is aware of actual numbers.

More positively, those in the financial industry who have not been able to get to their golf bags for nearly three years from across the border in the neighboring country club in Shenzhen can soon do so.