6. Erich Pfister
The head of Falcon Private Bank's wealth management business will be on the shortlist of almost any Swiss private bank looking to renew its leadership. The veteran private banker has held various senior roles and has valuable experience in Asia, the biggest hunting ground for Swiss banks. He epitomizes the staid Swiss private banker, which would lend him the credibility to fit in well at posh Julius Baer.
Pfister only recently took on a leadership role at Falcon, which would seem to contradict another professional move imminently. But that bank's messy involvement in the 1MDB corruption scandal have massively curtailed its growth options – an impetus for the ambitious private banker to make an elegant exit for greener pastures?
finews.asia forecast: 50 percent probability
7. Christoph Brunner
The former Credit Suisse banker is among a host of outside candidates who could inherit Collardi's job – not least because Julius Baer has already poached executives from the larger rival for years now. Brunner is also an experienced banker who has managed difficult revamps like that of Credit Suisse's Swiss business as well as the introduction of a new fee and pricing model.
Brunner was passed over in Tidjane Thiam's revamp of Credit Suisse more than one year ago, and the toughest job in Swiss banking – preparing the bank's Swiss arm for public listing – went to Thomas Gottstein instead. Brunner left the bank shortly after; the ambitious former McKinsey consultant is hungry for a new challenge.
finews.asia forecast: 30 percent probability
8. Marco Bizzozero
The Ticino-born private banker is the sleeper candidate among the potential heirs to Collardi's throne. In his previous role as Deutsche Bank's head of private banking in Europe, the Middle East and Africa as well as running the German lender's Swiss business, Bizzozero cut a low profile – which was good thing in Deutsche's recent, turbulent months.
Bizzozero was among the first Swiss private banking CEOs to consistently pursue a «clean money» strategy, a realization that his colleagues were slower to come around to. He gave notice at Deutsche unexpectedly late last year. He actually began his career as an investment banker, which could raise his chances for the top job at Baer – he is versatile.
finews.asia forecast: 20 percent probability
9. Stefano Coduri
The private banking industry would reel from shock if the former BSI banker surfaced as Julius Baer's CEO after his abrupt departure from the Ticino-based private bank in the wake of the 1MBD graft scandal. The bank massively violated anti-money laundering laws during Coduri's tenure, and lost its license to operate in Singapore as a result. The 143-year-old private bank's history came to an ignominious end last year, when it disappeared into EFG International.
Like any «fallen» banker, Coduri has earned a second chance. He has the skills for a top job and he is nimble at integrating private banks: he was responsible for the integration of of Banca Unione di Credit in 2006 and that of Banca del Gottardo one year later. Julius Baer, which has grown by acquisition in recent years, would find his experience valuable.
finews.asia forecast: 10 percent probability
10. Franco Morra
He has been at HSBC since 2010 and was appointed the Swiss head five years ago. The former boss of UBS' Swiss business advanced at the British bank at a turbulent time: HSBC was roiled by client data leaks that date back to the bank's former IT technician Herve Falciani in 2008, who stole data. HSBC paid Geneva prosecutors 40 million Swiss francs nearly two years ago and admitted failings in its dealings with hidden offshore accounts.
Morra managed to revive HSBC's fortunes in Switzerland after the scandal, and wasn't afraid to shut down or sell unprofitable activities and cut hundreds of jobs. The 50-year-old banker knows change management, both from his UBS tenure as well as his HSBC role – which could come in handy at Baer.
finews.asia forecast: 20 percent probability
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