New statistics show a sharp rise in population as the government’s measures to attract overseas applications, many of them from the mainland, kick in. Where does that leave everyone else? 

For years, as finews.asia previously reported, Hong Kong’s population has been on the wane. Now, suddenly, it seems the city is back, at least when it comes to the number of people living here.

The Census and Statistics Department figures released Wednesday indicate the city saw its population rise to just under 7.5 million, which is a gain of 2.1 percent, or 152,000 people, from a year earlier.

So - what’s behind the rise? According to a government spokesperson, much of it has to do with the relaxation of Covid-19 measures late last year, which allowed travel from and to the city to resume.

Rising Rents

If so, it is already driving rents up again, with the Centa City Rental Index near its seasonal peaks. In an article, the «South China Morning Post» (paywall) indicated that the index (paywall) showed a further gain in July, rising to 18-month highs, reflecting an influx of students and professionals.

But another key factor, and possibly the most important, is the number of individuals admitted as residents under a number of entry of so-called talent, professional, and entrepreneur schemes, a key one being for those from the mainland.

That, together with the one-way entry permit for China nationals, makes it more than likely that the composition of Hong Kong’s population will increasingly comprise those from the mainland in the future.

More Growth Ahead

The government says as much in its projections. It expects the city’s population to rise to almost 8.2 million by 2046, with much of the gain due to the various schemes. 

Importantly, it indicated the single largest influx (890,000) is expected to comprise so-called one-way permit holders. This probably reflects something that was always going to happen since the handover in 1997. 

Still, the growth now comes with a very different flavor in the wake of the 2019 protests, the pandemic, and rising geopolitical tension between many countries in the West and China. 

Expatriate Magnet

In the longer term, the effects are harder to gauge. Lest we forget, it was in the 1960s and 1970s that the city, and its stock market, grew into a significant cross-border international financial center. 

It also became a magnet for economic migrants, euphemistically termed expatriates, from many countries around the world.  

But the city also seems to have a habit of reinventing itself. Before becoming a financial center, it was a major port, a center of trade, and a manufacturing base. 

Reinventing Itself

It was also once a place where British citizens could plop themselves on a flight, land, and find themselves as an impromptu project managers for something like a grand new airport project - although those days are now long gone.

We might be seeing it reinventing itself before our very eyes. But by the looks of it, given the geopolitics and everything else, it would not be surprising if the population mix changed significantly. 

As finews.asia commented in 2021, this could simply be a continuation of a trend whereby expatriates from Western countries, Switzerland included, became a significantly smaller chunk of the overall population.