What impact does a Republican or Democrat victory have on the Stock Market? An Index Certificate now allows investments based on the election outcome.
Anyone who wants to bet on the outcome of the US elections and do so not on a betting exchange, but with stocks, can now choose from two certificates from Vontobel Bank.
One underlying asset is the «Vontobel Democrat 2024 US Election Index,» which includes stocks from sectors expected to benefit from a Joe Biden victory. Examples include green energy, climate, and electric mobility. In contrast, the «Vontobel Republican 2024 US Election Index» includes titles related to fossil fuels, aerospace, defense, real estate, and finance. A return of Donald Trump to the White House is expected to boost their prices.
Beneficiaries in Every Scenario
However, there are also areas such as infrastructure, technology, and media that are apparently among the winners regardless of the election outcome and are found in both stock baskets.
The subscription deadline for the two certificates is fittingly July 4, American Independence Day. The term ends after two years, on September 15, 2026, just before the next midterm elections. «By then, the election winner may have implemented certain points of their agenda, which could be reflected in the performance of the indices,» Vontobel cautiously notes.
