Hong Kong home prices could tumble further in 2024 before bottoming out in 2025, according to Citi which expects delayed impact from potential US monetary easing.
Home prices in Hong Kong will decrease by another 10 percent in 2024, according to Citi. This is despite the bank’s separate forecast for the US Federal Reserve to commence monetary easing in July and cut interest rates by 0.25 percent at each meeting for a total of 1 percent this year.
«It will take time for interest rate cuts to impact the Hong Kong economy,» said Ka Liu, head of investment strategy and portfolio advisory at Citibank Hong Kong. «We remain conservative on the residential market outlook, as mortgage rates will stand high, exerting repayment burden on potential buyers.»
Rebound Next Year?
Supply and demand in Hong Kong’s housing trend is also likely to maintain downward pressure on prices. An average of 20,000 units is expected to be completed in the coming two years compared to sales of 10,000 units in 2022 and 9,000 units in the first nine months of 2023.
According to Liu, home prices may bottom out in 2025, depending on interest rates and China’s macro environment.
