The Germans, and to some extent the French, have long been accustomed to seeing Italy as a sort of discount store where they can purchase attractive brands at low prices. However, according to financial journalist Gabriele La Monica in an interview with finews.asia, things have changed, especially with the recent push by Italian banking giant Unicredit into Germany.
Gabriele La Monica, has Unicredit's CEO, Andrea Orcel, overestimated himself, or is he a visionary?
Neither. Andrea Orcel (pictured below) is a banker with the necessary resilience to resist political pressure and say «no» where others cannot, as was the case with the attempted takeover of Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS).
At the same time, he is a banker who knows the market extremely well—he waits for prices to meet his expectations and can act quickly and discreetly, as he demonstrated with Commerzbank.
What is Orcel’s long-term plan?
(Image: Media Relations Unicredit)
Orcel’s long-term goal is to raise Unicredit’s market capitalization to over €100 billion, which essentially means competing with the heavyweights of global high finance. I believe this will also involve a merger with Commerzbank.
«The far-right doesn’t like anything that comes from abroad, especially not Italians»
Additionally, I believe Orcel's acquisition spree isn’t over, but there’s no certainty about who the next targets might be. Mediobanca is a constant topic of speculation, but many are betting on new foreign takeovers.
In this context, rumors often circulate—though never confirmed – about Julius Baer, among others. However, these are merely casual conversations at this point. The future will tell.
Did the German government sleep while Orcel set his sights on Commerzbank?
Maybe they just pretended to. Chancellor Olaf Scholz had to face the elections in the state of Brandenburg. If the AfD had won, it could have shaken the German government.
The protectionist stance, in my view, was more about preventing a further rise in AfD votes than for any other reason. The far-right doesn’t like anything from abroad, especially not Italians who want to buy a German bank after receiving a state bailout.
Is Germany’s defensive stance understandable?
Commerzbank branch in Germany (Image:Keystone)
Only when viewed in the context of the ruling party’s current situation. In contrast, Lufthansa is on the verge of acquiring ITA Airways. That’s acceptable from a German perspective, but it wouldn’t be the case for Commerzbank. Can you understand this?
The Germans, and partially the French, are used to seeing Italy as a discount store where they can buy interesting brands at low prices. But things have changed in recent years.
«If ITA had been handed to Swiss MSC, it would have maximized the role of Italian airports»
Personally, I wouldn’t have sold ITA Airways to Lufthansa—not for patriotic reasons, but because this decision weakens Milan Linate in favor of German airports. If ITA had been handed to Swiss MSC, it would have maximized the role of Italian airports.
If Orcel’s plan succeeds and he manages to acquire up to 30% of Commerzbank, would that be the first significant deal within Europe?
I believe there should be many more such deals, but realistically, national interests will continue to dominate. Unicredit has already shown the Germans, with its acquisition of HVB, that it is reliable.
Could a European bank emerge that can compete with American and Chinese banks?
That is Orcel’s goal, and he has said so many times, that I believe he will achieve it.
Under Orcel’s leadership, Unicredit has gained in profit, structure, and success. However, the institution is not yet as globally present as UBS or Deutsche Bank. How significant is Unicredit, really?
Unicredit's headquarters in Milan (Imagine: Keystone)
It is significant, but indeed, there are some areas where it still needs to grow to reach the level of UBS, particularly in Wealth Management.
Do you think we will see more cross-border mergers and acquisitions in Europe?
I hope so, but I believe it will be complicated until a real banking union is achieved.
How will the major rival Intesa Sanpaolo react if Unicredit becomes so powerful?
That’s a question many are asking. The bank could be content with its dominance in Italy, but it’s hard to imagine a CEO like Carlo Messina being satisfied with that. Everyone knows that his dream is to acquire Mediobanca. Let’s see if that dream becomes a reality.
It’s a very complicated dream to realize, but I don’t believe Intesa will sit idly by while Unicredit grows without taking action.
(Immagine: MF)
Gabriele La Monica (pictured above) is one of Italy’s most experienced financial journalists. He heads the Milan bureau of the Italian news agency Milano Finanza, MF Newswires, part of Italy’s leading financial media group, Class Editori.
