Niall Ferguson: Taiwan is the «Most Important Geopolitical Issue»
Taiwan, not Ukraine, is currently the «most important geopolitical issue», according to British author and historian Niall Ferguson who believes that military conflict will not be favorable for the US.
Ukraine has been dominating headlines, most notably with the recent incident involving President Volodymyr Zelensky being kicked out of the White House after a heated argument with US leaders. But according to British author and historian Niall Ferguson, the spotlight should be placed on Asia where there continues to be a risk of military conflict between China and Taiwan, which the former calls a rogue province.
«Ukraine is not the most important geopolitical issue in the world today. The most important geopolitical issue in the world today is Taiwan,» said Ferguson during a session at the HSBC Global Investment Summit 2025 attended by finews.asia. «And what is remarkable about this issue is how strongly Americans feel about.»
According to a 2024 survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 37 percent of Americans support the US Navy breaking a Chinese blockade around Taiwan, even if this might trigger a wide conflict, including 42 percent of Republicans.
Foreign Relations
Aside from the likelihood of successful military action, where Ferguson cites an unfavorable outlook based on various simulations of war games, he also believes that efforts to reposition foreign relations may not be effective. The most notable trend is US efforts to get closer to Russia – a move he calls «reverse Nixon» as former President Richard Nixon previously brought the US closer to China in a rivalry against the former Soviet Union.
«I just find it hard to believe that it works. That Vladimir Putin, after all the support that he has received from Xi Jinping over the last three years, without which his war in Ukraine would have been an epic fail, is just going to say [goodbye] to his true friend with whom he has been through thick and thin,» Ferguson commented.
Ferguson’s Law
Meanwhile, the US also faces significant issues at home.
Firstly, Ferguson believes that higher tariffs will not be particularly positive, especially in relocating manufacturing to the US, referencing the outcome from Donald Trump’s first term when trade was often just rerouted to third countries like Mexico, Vietnam and India.
Secondly, the US empire faces the possibility of major deterioration. According to Ferguson’s Law, a theory created by Scottish thinker Adam Ferguson, any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power.
Too Early to Call
Despite the uncertainties, Ferguson stresses that the outcome has yet to be determined.
«It's too early to write off Trump 2.0. Trump [1.0] delivered the strongest growth in median household income adjusted for inflation of any President since Richard Nixon,» he noted.
«But if this all goes wrong because the tariffs don't re-industrialize America and because 'reverse Nixon' just isolates the United States, then Trump 2.0 is going to be as disappointing as Trump 1.0 was successful.»
