Geopolitics is mentioned at «every client meeting», according to Deutsche Bank chief investment officer Christian Nolting, with 2024 being named as the biggest election year in history.
In 2024, elections will be held by economies that account for 42 percent of world GDP and 41 percent of the global population. And this will have global repercussions as domestic political developments are increasingly shaping foreign policy agendas, according to Deutsche Bank.
«There are a lot of discussion on geopolitics. Every client meeting literally has this,» said Deutsche Bank CIO Christian Nolting in a recent virtual briefing attended by finews.asia. «Interestingly, it’s probably the biggest election year in history.»
Geopolitical Themes
Within geopolitics, Nolting highlighted several sub-themes including expectations of continued US-China tensions and the politicization of supply chains for many years to come. On the latter, he noted that such developments are likely to be inflationary due to the higher cost of de-globalization, despite improved resilience.
And on specific elections, Nolting named Taiwan, EU nations and the US as ones that the bank is monitoring particularly closely next year.
Infrastructure For Diversification
Overall, Deutsche Bank is broadly positive on markets. In equities, the bank expects robust earnings growth to drive returns, partially offset by higher rates for longer.
Within fixed income, it is positive on investment-grade corporates due to yield pick-up and sound fundamentals. The bank is also optimistic on alternatives for diversification, especially in infrastructure investments.
Focus on India and Indonesia
Specifically on the economy in Asia, the bank is also positive on the future outlook. Deutsche Bank forecasts 4.7 percent growth in China in 2024 with strong contributions from other economies like India and Indonesia.
