The assassination attempt over the past weekend has significantly boosted Donald Trump's chances for reelection as the next US President. Nevertheless, there are considerations suggesting that this could now be the Democrats' moment.
Over the past weekend, Donald Trump was the target of an assassination attempt during a political rally in Pennsylvania. Although he was not fatally injured, a bullet penetrated the upper part of his right ear, while one participant in the event was killed and two others injured. The shooter was also killed.
Since then, numerous commentators believe that the assassination attempt has significantly boosted Trump's chances of winning the US presidential elections. Vasu Menon (pictured below), investment strategist at OCBC, stated on Monday that the iconic images of Trump raising his fist and showing a bloody right ear are seen by his supporters as «a metaphor for the former president's resiliency».
Vasu Menon, Managing Director, Investment Strategy, OCBC (Image: CPFB)
In fact, the prediction website PredictIt also forecasts a Trump election victory with a now high probability of 67 percent, compared to 60 percent before the assassination attempt and only 55 percent before the Trump-Biden debate on June 27. However, not all observers anticipate a win for the former US president.
Decision in Chicago
Swiss financial expert and Managing Partner of Porta Advisors, Beat Wittmann (pictured below), stated on Monday: «I do not expect the increasingly incapacitated Joe Biden or the extremist Donald Trump to become the next US president. The focus now shifts to the candidate who will be nominated at the Democratic National Convention from August 19 to 22, 2024, in Chicago.»
Wittmann may have a point. Violence has no place in democracy, and elections are determined by ballots, not bullets. Under these premises, a majority of American voters might opt for a new Democratic candidate in light of further potential escalation on the political stage, provided Biden can be convinced to step down.
Beat Wittmann, Porta Advisors (Image: zvg)
«Unfortunately, there is no chance that the political climate will improve after such a despicable assassination attempt. On the contrary, we can expect even more extremist rhetoric and violence, and Trump has almost immediately seized this as an opportunity to gain political advantage,» observes Wittmann.
Irrelevant For US Capital Markets
Under these circumstances, a new Democratic candidate presents the ultimate chance for the Democrats to counter Trump's march forward. Because one thing is certain: since last weekend, there is little indication of Biden's success.
Interestingly, many commentators also note that the outcome of the US presidential election will not be crucial for the strong and resilient US economy or US capital markets. US risk assets remain attractive regardless – particularly equity investments.
