China’s zero-Covid policy will likely persist beyond the upcoming key Communist Party meeting next month, according to Goldman Sachs, with expectations for a pivot away only beginning in mid-2023.
In the upcoming Communist Party meeting in October, President Xi Jinping is expected to secure his unprecedented third term. While optimists view this as an opportunity for China to reopen from the pandemic after more than two grueling years, Goldman Sachs believes this is not likely.
According to a report by economists including China lead Hui Shan, a pivot away from the strict zero-Covid policy stance is unlikely to occur until after the annual National People’s Congress in the first half of 2023.
Stability is Key
In the coming weeks, the report underlined that stability will be key, attributing to this the tightened Covid measures, especially around Beijing. Areas near the capital have been locked down while virus testing rules have tightened and domestic travel has been discouraged over the next month.
On October 16, 2,000 delegates will join the meeting which is held once every five years with the focus mainly on reshuffling party leadership, Goldman added.
