Singapore, where both UBS and Credit Suisse have a strong presence, is Asia's safe harbor – much as Switzerland is Europe's.
Massive Backlog
Europe and the U.S. are dramatically underestimating Asia's growth momentum, and especially China's, Guenthardt says, retreating instead to often erroneous, frequently negative perceptions. «In Asia itself, you never perceive these uncertainties.»
Most of the region's countries are upbeat, driven by an increasing middle class which wants a piece of growing wealth. While undoubtedly true of China, this also applies to Vietnam's 95 million inhabitants or Indonesia's 300 million population – both rather young economies, with a relatively high level of education or qualifications translate to massive pent-up demand.
Skip Two Generations
This applies to technology in particular: «In these countries, it's not uncommon to skip two generations of technology,» Guenthardt says – from 1980s typewriter directly to a 4G-enabled smartphone, for example.
Conglomerates like Alibaba and Tencent play a central role in this development: their services are catered to a digital audience, and the firms posses a vast trove of data on their clients. That's why Guenthardt believes that tech firms, and not upstarts from fintech, pose the greatest threat for traditional banking. Tech firms wield enormous clout because they have instant access to client data, but also the point of sale and easy distribution channels.
Invisible Chinese Hand
Chinese finance's advancement is, of course, stage-managed by the invisible hand of the government: authorities target expertise they want to import, in order to then further develop and improve on it. «Unlike the U.S., where economic policy mainly aims to improve business conditions for corporations, China's policies match work groups with Chinese national champions, ensuring that sectors grow dynamically, in step with the latest developments and opportunities,» Guenthardt says.
The result? An economic power of unrivaled size which receives key input both from the private and public sectors. China's march on European firms as takeover targets will continue for some time, Guenthardt is convinced.
In Asian finance circles, it is taken for granted that China's banks will step up to inject capital into troubled western lenders, and not as in 2008/09, Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds.
- << Back
- Page 2 of 2