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Potential Trade War

Malaysia’s relationship to China, and not the alleged $5 billion corruption racket around 1MDB, has emerged as a central theme in the campaign. Mahathir has pledged more intense scrutiny of Chinese foreign direct investment in Malaysia, something Najib has dismissed as scare-mongering.

Both men’s views on China may be eclipsed by a simmering trade spat between the U.S. and China. Malaysia, along with Hong Kong, are the most exposed in Asia to the fallout from a potential trade war between the two economic titans, Vontobel fund manager Luc d’Hooge told finews.asia.

Immediate Gains

There are few reliable opinion polls for the election, partly because it is a country of 13 sprawling and influential states. The youth vote as well as rural voters are widely seen as linchpins to the election, but very difficult to call. While young voters may be open to abandoning Najib, the ties and family pressure from generations of voting for Barisan Nasional, his party, will weigh strongly, the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, a Singapore-based research institute, said.

As for rural voters, many will see no direct advantage from either Najib or Mahathir – and simply decide last-minute for the candidate they feel will give them «immediate gains», ISEAS’ Serina Rahman said.

Efforts Foundered

To be sure, his international peers have cooled on Najib, who once golfed with former U.S. President Barack Obama in Hawaii. For example, Najib’s efforts to get a golf game with current leader Donald Trump during a U.S. trip last year foundered. Najib did go to the White House in September, but didn’t get the full Oval Office photo treatment – photographers snapped him being welcomed by Trump after alighting from his car, and later meeting in the Cabinet Room with the U.S. president and other officials.

This month, Najib skipped out of the Commonwealth Summit, a network of more than 50 mainly former colonies of Britain, due to the election campaign, depriving him of a valuable photo opportunity with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May.

Playboy Model-Mistress Pregnant

Regional leaders have also been cool on Najib, the «South China Morning Post» noted: China hasn’t visited Malaysia – officially – since President Xi Jinping’s 2013 visit; Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman won’t be stopping in Kuala Lumpur as part of his world tour; nor have neighbors like Indonesian leader Joko Widodo or the Sultan of Brunei bothered to stop by lately.

For his part, the U.S. lobbyist for Najib and Malaysia, Elliott Broidy, was ensnared earlier this month in a scheme to pay his Playboy model-mistress $1.6 million after she became pregnant. Broidy and his lawyer-wife, Robin Rosenzweig, were reportedly connected to none other than Jho Low.