Asia will emerge stronger from the crisis, with the region projected to contribute more than half of global premium growth to 2030, the firm said in a new report.
Most markets will recover in 2021 and global growth over the next decade is expected to settle at 4.4 percent, against 8.1 percent in Asia (ex-Japan), with the region contributing contribute more than 50 percent, or €1,277 billion to global premium growth until 2030, Allianz said in its «Global Insurance Report,» published Thursday.
«While Asian players lead in technology, European peers are ahead with ESG. But dominance of the global insurance industry will be decided in Asia – Asian households emerge as the consumer of last resort, driving global insurance demand,» Ludovic Subran, Allianz chief economist, said.
China Demand
China’s premium pool is estimated to grow by €777 billion by 2030, on the back of higher risk awareness and pent-up demand for social protection. This would make the market larger than the U.K., France, Germany and Italy combined, the report said.
«For the next couple of years, we expect double-digit increases in premiums in the Middle Kingdom,» Michaela Grimm, Allianz SE economist and co-author of the report, said.
Demand was already strong before the global pandemic hit – Asia (ex Japan) recorded 6.8 percent growth in 2019, more than twice the rate of the year before. Both segments, Life and P&C, contributed to the increase in premiums: Life grew by 6.5 percent and P&C by 7.5 percent. Total premiums reached €947 billion in the region, almost half of them written in China.
Covid-19 Impact
Dubbed «A Lost Year,» the report said the coronavirus would keep the industry in weak health in 2020, with an estimated a 0.7 percent decline in premium income in Asia (ex-Japan) and a decline of 3.8 percent globally, or a loss of €360 billion in premiums.
The decrease in global premium income during the global financial crisis was only 1 percent, Allianz said.
The biggest losses will come from the life insurance and P&C sectors, which is expected to grow by -4.4 percent and -2.9 percent, respectively, the report said.
