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kevin sneader: «we overreact to noise in this part of the world». although many have revised their us outlook downwards given the growing uncertainty, it is not recommended to completely ignore american financial markets, according to goldman sachs’ kevin sneader who said that asia can sometimes overreact. the economic outlook in the us is worsening due in no small part to the escalating trade war. in a recent survey done by goldman sachs, 90 percent of respondents had lowered their 2025 gdp forecast by at least 40 basis points. the american lender itself had also revised its own projection downwards from 2.4 percent to 1.7 percent. «we are not suggesting there will be a recession. in fact, we see the odds of a recession at around 20 percent,» said kevin sneader,goldman sachs’ president of asia pacific ex-japan, during a panel at the milken institute global investors’ symposium in hong kong attended by finews.asia. asia: top three risks. for asia, sneader highlighted three main risks to consider. firstly, tariffs will matter significantly as six of the 10 economies with the largest us trade deficits – china, vietnam, taiwan, japan, south korea and india – are all located in the region. secondly, geopolitical uncertainty remains with alliances such as aukus (australia, uk and us), quad (australia, india, japan, and us) and the indo-pacific economic framework (14 countries) under pressure. thirdly, there is a growth slowdown domestically in china. «so what does that mean? it means we're dealing with a lot of volatility. if you measure it in one sense – the vix – it's back to levels that we saw just after the russian invasion of ukraine which gives you a real sense of the uncertainties that everybody is grappling with,» sneader added. optimism in china. on china, sneader underlined challenges from what he calls the «three d’s» – debt, demographic and decoupling – but noted improvements such as the rise of animal spirits symbolized by the emergence of deepseek. «i used to say to somebody who asked me what would be the big thing that would revive confidence in the private sector in china, i used to say a big hug between president xi and some of the private sector leaders,» sneader said. «we got a handshake or two a few weeks ago but confidence does feel like it's returning.». will global investors return? although domestic investors are showing greater interest in china, will this be enough to spark confidence amongst global investors? in addition to clarity around its political framework and positive geopolitical developments, sneader named consistency as the key. «investors want to see a consistent approach on the part of china towards the private sector predominantly so it's quite a few pieces yet to come together before they're going to feel confident about jumping back,» he explained. don’t ignore the us. sneader advises investors to stay invested and diversified, observing demand for safety in areas like healthcare, gold and infrastructure. however, he does not recommend ignoring the us, despite the recent selloff. «i think sometimes we overreact to noise in this part of the world. we're sort of pushed to it because we live here [and] we know it's going to be volatile. but i wouldn't bet overly against the opportunities that continue to exist in the us,» he said.
Kevin Sneader: «We Overreact to Noise in This Part of the World»
Although many have revised their US outlook downwards given the growing uncertainty, it is not recommended to completely ignore American financial markets, according to Goldman Sachs’ Kevin Sneader who said that Asia can sometimes overreact.
The economic outlook in the US is worsening due in no small part to the escalating trade war. In a recent survey done by Goldman Sachs, 90 percent of respondents had lowered their 2025 GDP forecast by at least 40 basis points. The American lender itself had also revised its own projection downwards from 2.4 percent to 1.7 percent.
«We are not suggesting there will be a recession. In fact, we see the odds of a recession at around 20 percent,» said Kevin Sneader,
Goldman Sachs’ president of Asia Pacific ex-Japan, during a panel at the Milken Institute Global Investors’ Symposium in Hong Kong attended by finews.asia.
Asia: Top Three Risks
For Asia, Sneader highlighted three main risks to consider. Firstly, tariffs will matter significantly as six of the 10 economies with the largest US trade deficits – China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and India – are all located in the region. Secondly, geopolitical uncertainty remains with alliances such as AUKUS (Australia, UK and US), Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and US) and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (14 countries) under pressure. Thirdly, there is a growth slowdown domestically in China.
«So what does that mean? It means we're dealing with a lot of volatility. If you measure it in one sense – the VIX – it's back to levels that we saw just after the Russian invasion of Ukraine which gives you a real sense of the uncertainties that everybody is grappling with,» Sneader added.
Optimism in China
On China, Sneader underlined challenges from what he calls the «three D’s» – debt, demographic and decoupling – but noted improvements such as the rise of animal spirits symbolized by the emergence of DeepSeek.
«I used to say to somebody who asked me what would be the big thing that would revive confidence in the private sector in China, I used to say a big hug between President Xi and some of the private sector leaders,» Sneader said. «We got a handshake or two a few weeks ago but confidence does feel like it's returning.»
Will Global Investors Return?
Although domestic investors are showing greater interest in China, will this be enough to spark confidence amongst global investors? In addition to clarity around its political framework and positive geopolitical developments, Sneader named consistency as the key.
«Investors want to see a consistent approach on the part of China towards the private sector predominantly so it's quite a few pieces yet to come together before they're going to feel confident about jumping back,» he explained.
Don’t Ignore the US
Sneader advises investors to stay invested and diversified, observing demand for safety in areas like healthcare, gold and infrastructure. However, he does not recommend ignoring the US, despite the recent selloff.
«I think sometimes we overreact to noise in this part of the world. We're sort of pushed to it because we live here [and] we know it's going to be volatile. But I wouldn't bet overly against the opportunities that continue to exist in the US,» he said.
