The adverse reports surrounding the UBS/Credit Suisse merger are increasing, and now a parliamentary inquiry on Credit Suisse is starting. That makes it all the more critical for UBS to maintain its momentum—one person in particular stands for this.
Switzerland's finance minister has an appointment she cannot afford to miss today. Karin Keller-Sutter is scheduled to appear at the Parliamentary Investigation Commission's (PUK) first hearing.
The Federal Councillor is to answer questions from the assembled parliamentarians on the circumstances surrounding the collapse, rescue, and sale of Credit Suisse.
UBS Before the Federal Administrative Court
Tomorrow, UBS has another official deadline to meet. It has to make a statement to the Federal Administrative Court in St. Gallen on a complaint filed by hundreds of investors concerning the Credit Suisse takeover.
Investors are defending themselves against the directive of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (Finma), which ordered Credit Suisse to write down mandatory convertible bonds worth almost 16 billion francs ($17.6 billion) to zero in March.
Charge UBS directly?
UBS is only a party to these proceedings. But now the British law firm Pallas is considering suing Credit Suisse, and by extension its parent company UBS, directly because it didn't defend itself more decisively against the Finma directive during the rescue.
The start of the PUK and the appeal proceedings in St. Gallen indicate that a new phase is dawning for UBS.
After the management team around CEO Sergio Ermotti and chairman Colm Kelleher were allowed to sketch out the contours of the new bank in broad strokes in recent months, the focus is now on the integration in detail. This is as complex as it is protracted.
A Grueling Phase
The merger of two globally systemically important banks has never been attempted before, and the fact that Ermotti wants to complete the integration by 2027 against this backdrop is considered very ambitious.
Nevertheless, four years is a long time, during which the bank will be primarily preoccupied with itself in what's likely to be a grueling phase for UBS's internal and external stakeholders.
The Days of Big Shots Are Over
This changes the narrative of the merger. The days of big shots, when everything hung on the lips of Ermotti and Kelleher, are over.
Instead, the public is likely to hear more news about the downside of the merger: Mass layoffs, claims for damages, and problems with people and systems. And with the result of the PUK expected in the spring, the takeover will be discussed intensively.
Share Price in Focus
UBS shareholders will be anxiously watching the bank's share price and keeping an eye on the bank's return and cost targets. After solid gains following the announcement of the full integration of Credit Suisse in August, the shares have been trending sideways for weeks. This doesn't fit well with the growth story that the bank's management wants to sell to investors.
The term comes up a lot these days in conversations. Given the prospect of four years of integration, momentum has even advanced to become the decisive question.
The Attraction of the New Masses
Observers point out that momentum in the core business of Global Asset Management (GWM) is unbroken. Thanks to the Credit Suisse acquisition, UBS has become the number one in GWM in Switzerland, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
It sits in fourth place in the US, but it wants to improve on that, too. The appeal of the new mass in wealth management, it boasts, is already being felt.
After record net new money in the year's first half, the growth hasn't slowed in recent weeks. Asian clients in particular are currently entrusting UBS with an above-average amount of assets, according to financial insiders.
The Gusto of Iqbal Khan
Meanwhile, UBS has recently appointed more than ten leaders in the GWM division - Middle East veteran Bruno Daher is one example. They are professionals with clear growth targets to meet in collaboration with younger employees.
Momentum Embodied
GWM boss Iqbal Khan is watching over this as the embodiment of momentum. According to reports, he's on the road non-stop, motivating managers and frontline staff in the bank's extensive network of branches and meeting top customers.
That's a task quite suited to the man now considered the most critical manager after Ermotti. «Iqbal is enjoying this time,» a source says of the banker.
Enormous Transfer of Highly Sensitive Data
While Khan jets around the world to ensure the momentum of UBS's flagship business, the Group is working day in and day out to overcome numerous integration hurdles, and Credit Suisse employees have to be trained and brought up to speed on UBS's systems.
The same must be done for the Credit Suisse clients and some of the products. This involves the transfer of enormous amounts of highly sensitive data, a task in which it can't afford to make any mistakes.
Double Challenge
This makes it doubly challenging to maintain momentum because the integration will be unwinnable for UBS if lost.